A Double Red Card ..and Joe Hart to the rescue

Three of the semi-finalists spotted, Spain and Germany on course for a final, Portgual the 40-1 dark horses at the beginning of the tournament up against the Iberian neighbours.....so far this blogspot has had its predictions spot on. But tonight is the big game. Stevie G holding aloft the Euro Cup on July 3 at Wembley - well that would complete my distinguished four year cycle of perfect footie predictions. So what can we expect tonight.

For starters - expect a dead heat....0-0 or 1-1 at full time. This is simply because of the similarities of the two sides in this tournament. Lets start with the two coaches - both are born under the sun sign of Leo. Cesare Prandelli was born 19th August 1957 while Roy Hodgson was born 9th August 1947.  Both managers have managed and transformed mid table Premier League clubs (Fiorentina by Cesare and and West brom/Fulham by Roy) with strong European level finishes (Fulham were Runners Up in the 2010 Europa League) before taking on their current National managerial roles. 

The Italians have been the biggest exporters of the Catennacio (a hugely defensive football formation  - a 1-3-3-3 or a 1-4-3-2 with a sweeper defender behind the Back Three) since the Franco-Argentine trainer Helenio Herrera of Internazionale made it popular in the Serie A in the 1960s. Trust  Cesare to approach this  game with at least 5 defenders. The English (and especially Hodgson) are traditionally a 4-4-2 playing nation.  In all prior games in this tournament, the English have used the 4-4-2. So tonight expect some serious slow ball defensive techniques from both sides. And with Buffon  - possibly Italy's best ever keeper and Joe Hart, currently one of the World's finest keepers, expect no feast of goals tonight.

Midfield is where England are a (millionth of a) shade weak. The Italian midfield of Motta, Rossi and Pirlo can be a danger to any side and this is where the Italians may have a positional advantage over Gerrard, Parker and Young. Key to tonight's game will be when Hodgson decides to use his main attacking weapon in mid field Theo Walcott. If he starts with Theo, England risk losing the opportunity to use his speed on the flanks - important especially when the Italian back four can get tired in the last 10-20 minutes of the game or even in extra time.

Finally - attackers on either side that can change the game. Mario 'Why always me' Balotelli has had a very colorful build-up to this game. Hugely influential in any game but I expect Terry to monitor him and with the very likelihood of a red card before 90 minutes for the cracker boy from Manchester City. Wayne Rooney on the other end is as explosive and influential as ever but risks getting a red card against a hugely stable Italian defense.Welbeck and Andy Caroll could swing things the English way ....but this is counterbalanced by De Natale. And there are some grunge mind games here as well. Balotelli bagged the bragging rights by befriending (to use polite English) Rooney's hooker girlfriend - Jenny Thompson (if you don't remember this story, a link is attached) !! 

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4244902/Rooney-hooker-Mario-Balotelli-beats-Wayne-in-the-bedroom.html

So what can we expect - a dead heat. The bookies are playing it extremely safe. 9/5 for both England and Italy to win in normal time and a 19/10 draw.


http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/y/5/Football.html


Usually the bookies get it right...So my prediction - a 1-1 or 0-0 in full time. One or two possible red cards and England winning on penalties and Joe Hart on the front page of every newspaper tomorrow !!