Purple, Red or Blue: Statistics Central !!

My blog this week is Statistic Central...but with a Purple Heart stuck on the lapel.

Go through the stats below and decide for yourself who will win the U.S Presidential Election in two weeks' time:

Total U.S. population: About 314 million.
Of this - Total Eligible voters: About 215 Million
Of this - Actual Voter turnout in 2008: About 132 million
Roughly 40% of voter turnout from 7 states: California, Florida, Pensylvania, Ohio, Illinois, New York and Michigan - Roughly Electoral votes from these 7 states.
Voter background: 74% White (non Latino), 11% - Black, 7% - Hispanic and Balance: Asians (2.3%) and others.

Latino eleigible voters: 21 Mn and growing the highest over the last decade !! - Most likely to vote = Democrat 2/3rd to 1/3rd Republican.

Most political analysts agree that we can already predict what will happen in about 40 states - they will be overhwhelmingly Democrat Blue (NY, California) or Republican Red (Texas).

But then what is the problem...we have some Purple states or Swing states as they call them now. Purple states are those where there is an even balance between the two main parties and these are.....Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina

Finally, the problem with the U.S electorate is that almost 93% of eligible voters have made up their minds who they will vote for on November 6....But it is the balance 7% that will decide the elections !!! So what do we know of these 7% of undecided voters:

They’re more female. 62% of Undecideds are female, compared to only 55% of Decideds.

They’re younger. Undecideds are 25% more likely to be under age 55.

They’re most likely NOT Black. Black voters are twice as likely to be Decided than Undecided.

They’re less formally-educated. Undecideds are 42% more likely to list “High School or GED” as the highest level of education they’ve attained and 50% less likely to have an advanced degree.

They make less income. 46% of Undecided voters live in households that make less than $50,000/year, compared to just 35% of Decideds.

They have less retirement savings. Undecideds are 20% less likely than Decideds to have any kind of IRA, pension fund or other retirement savings.

They’re more likely to be young parents. Undecideds are 15% more likely than Decideds to have school-aged children living with them.

But they’re also less likely to be married. Undecideds are 23% more likely to be divorced or “separated” from their spouse.

They’re more likely to be unemployed. Undecideds are 37.5% less likely to have a job and 13% less likely to be retired, a student, or a homemaker.

They’re less likely to own a home. 64% of Undecideds own a home versus 70% of Decideds.

They don’t own guns. Undecided voters are 23% less likely than Decideds to own a gun.

If we know the Democratic and Republican agendas and recent trends....you decide for yourself...I call Obama the winner with a slender margin.....(higher if the Latinos go to the polls in record numbers)

Purple it is - the color of the Democratic American Autumn !!