Welcome back to Omnikarma. Where football trumps everything else. If you are not a Gooner, time to sign out. If you love marketing more than your beer, you are in the right place. Thank you also for the wonderful comments and feedback on previous posts; please keep them coming. Today, I provide a brief curtain raiser to the Euro 2016 tournament in France. And I promise, there will be minimal references to Wenger's choice of strikers for next season.
Before I start my discourse on potential winners, let me share a wonderful simulator tool that I discovered online. Great to try out all permutations and combinations. Hope you like it too.
Home turf advantage: France being the host country and featuring some of the finest players from across the world leagues have a clear advantage.
FIFA rankings: Based on their outstanding progress over the past few years, Belgium at No:2 is the highest ranked team in this year's tournament. Germany (5), Spain (6), Portugal (8), England (10) and Italy (15) follow. France is placed a distant 21st in the rankings. Austria (11), Turkey (13) and Switzerland (14) are no pushovers. So, Belgians are the favorites on this front.
Player familiarity: I have used this as a leading indicator across many past tournaments. Basically, player familiarity indicates how well players mesh in with each other in a team; especially given that most European players play bulk of their football at various clubs across Europe (mostly). The Italians come top here with 10 of their current squad coming from Juventus, Roma and Napoli. The Germans come second here with 9 of their players picked from the 2015-16 Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen squads; with the added advantage of Joachim Low (side note: Low is the current Nivea Men brand ambassador; just saying !!) having been their coach since 2006. France have a relatively poor score here with only 3 players coming in from PSG, Lyon and Monaco. So Didier Deschamps will have a tough job here. But I think England scores big on this area with 16 players coming from the top 6 clubs. I give Italy, Germany and England the edge here.
Luck of the draw: There are some critical games in the tournament. The most important is the Belgium vs. Italy game on June 13. The loser is most likely to play a tough Portugese side on June 26 (and the winner then faces a potential game against the Germans in the Quarter Finals on July 2 - which is likely going to be one the finest games of the tournament). If Belgium win this game, they are likely to play Austria in the quarterfinals on July 3.The other big game of the tournament is most likely going to be on July 1 QF in Lille (most likely) between the French and the Spaniards. So if my predictions come true, the semi final contests will be England vs. Spain & Germany vs. Belgium. All 4 permutations for the finals will be fantastic for fans and viewers; the popular money would be on Germany vs. Spain (or France, if they can win the QF). While I will be rooting for a Belgium vs. England finals on July 10. The hosts will be rooting for France. The dark horses clearly are the Italians, Austrians and the Swedes.
So happy viewing; with less than 4 hours to kick-off - this will be one of the finest (and most unpredictable) Euro championships in recent history. Don't forget to join the banter on Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn with me !! (and to all those football widows and widowers, time to catch up on some 'Me' time) !! Ciao !!
Before I start my discourse on potential winners, let me share a wonderful simulator tool that I discovered online. Great to try out all permutations and combinations. Hope you like it too.
Now back to business. Readers of this Blog will obviously be aware of my highly unsuccessful past record of predicting the winners at the WC and European championships. This year, it will be no different. But I have a perfectly good reason why I may be way off the mark this year (once again !). Data from different sources reveal a divergent pattern i.e. One of France, Germany, Spain, England, Belgium or Italy could lift the trophy on July 10 in Paris. Why do I say that ?
Home turf advantage: France being the host country and featuring some of the finest players from across the world leagues have a clear advantage.
What the bookies say: Both of the leading bookies - William Hill and Ladbrokes provide the shortest odds on France followed by Germany, Spain, England and Belgium. I am a bit surprised that Italy gets a 18:1/16:1 with both bookies. So, the popular money is on the French and the Germans. If I were a betting man (and you know I am not), then I would certainly fancy the odds being offered on Belgium, Italy, Sweden (100:1), Austria (33:1) and Wales (66:1).
W Hill
|
Ladbrokes
| |
France
|
3:1
|
16:5
|
Germany
|
4:1
|
9:2
|
Spain
|
5:1
|
5:1
|
England
|
8:1
|
8:1
|
Belgium
|
11:1
|
10:1
|
Italy
|
18:1
|
16:1
|
FIFA rankings: Based on their outstanding progress over the past few years, Belgium at No:2 is the highest ranked team in this year's tournament. Germany (5), Spain (6), Portugal (8), England (10) and Italy (15) follow. France is placed a distant 21st in the rankings. Austria (11), Turkey (13) and Switzerland (14) are no pushovers. So, Belgians are the favorites on this front.
Player familiarity: I have used this as a leading indicator across many past tournaments. Basically, player familiarity indicates how well players mesh in with each other in a team; especially given that most European players play bulk of their football at various clubs across Europe (mostly). The Italians come top here with 10 of their current squad coming from Juventus, Roma and Napoli. The Germans come second here with 9 of their players picked from the 2015-16 Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen squads; with the added advantage of Joachim Low (side note: Low is the current Nivea Men brand ambassador; just saying !!) having been their coach since 2006. France have a relatively poor score here with only 3 players coming in from PSG, Lyon and Monaco. So Didier Deschamps will have a tough job here. But I think England scores big on this area with 16 players coming from the top 6 clubs. I give Italy, Germany and England the edge here.
Luck of the draw: There are some critical games in the tournament. The most important is the Belgium vs. Italy game on June 13. The loser is most likely to play a tough Portugese side on June 26 (and the winner then faces a potential game against the Germans in the Quarter Finals on July 2 - which is likely going to be one the finest games of the tournament). If Belgium win this game, they are likely to play Austria in the quarterfinals on July 3.The other big game of the tournament is most likely going to be on July 1 QF in Lille (most likely) between the French and the Spaniards. So if my predictions come true, the semi final contests will be England vs. Spain & Germany vs. Belgium. All 4 permutations for the finals will be fantastic for fans and viewers; the popular money would be on Germany vs. Spain (or France, if they can win the QF). While I will be rooting for a Belgium vs. England finals on July 10. The hosts will be rooting for France. The dark horses clearly are the Italians, Austrians and the Swedes.
So happy viewing; with less than 4 hours to kick-off - this will be one of the finest (and most unpredictable) Euro championships in recent history. Don't forget to join the banter on Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn with me !! (and to all those football widows and widowers, time to catch up on some 'Me' time) !! Ciao !!
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