Today, I have a blogpost of two halves - half 1 has some reflections on my predictions on the matches from last night and H2 has some thoughts on the first game (Russia-Spain) for tonight.
One of the greatest learning from football predictions is that, if done correctly, one can sharpen one’s decision making ability. Ideally like in non-sporting related decision making, all good managers look at many variables before making a final call. I have often found that my decision making ability (for serious stuff) continues to sharpen at work as I spend more time on trivial decision making. It is in this light I make some confessions below. Looking back at yesterday’s predictions, I made two rookie mistakes in making the 2-1 call on France defeating Argentina.
1. Mistake no:1: Despite concluding that both teams have the worlds best attacking sides, I assumed that both teams would have taken a defensive approach to a knockout game. I should have taken that punt on a Chelsea vs. Italy game (both historically defensive minded in big games) or on a game where at least one team is managed by Jose Mourinho 🤓 As we all know from hindsight, France scored on a counter early on and ended up with two attacking teams delivering a high scoring see saw thriller.
2. Mistake no:2: I assumed that (despite mentioning the potential of individual brilliance deciding the game) that the French midfield would control the game. Actually not - most of the goals were on swift counter attacks with no real midfield playmaking but sheer and simple out of the world strikes.
Note to self: in a football game, there are 100 million permutations and combinations that can decide the game. No wonder why bookies make money all the time against rookies like me.
Now on to tonight’s game. We look at four different aspects.
1. Team strength: Clearly in Spain’s favor except for point 2 below. Just like Brazil and France, Spain can easily field two world class sides from their 23 players. Great strikers, one of the best mid-field players in history (Andries Iniesta) and a truly amazing back-four that includes Sergio Ramos plus Gerard Pique. Not to forget brilliant playmakers like David Silva and Isco. I cannot think of one player from the current Russian team that would make it into the Spanish playing 11. Three other team strengths:
a. Passing and possession - less said the better.
b. Defenders that join in attack but still defend like mad dogs. Pique and Ramos would put any strike force to shame with their goal scoring abilities.
c. Ability to score from either wing or from the middle - a strength very few teams possess.
2. Red cards: Spain have at least three players that have a history of picking up red cards. Sergio Ramos has picked up 22 red cards in his career, yes !! And Diego Costa comes close. A superior history of missing games - and in my opinion only second to Luis Suarez of yester years - on foul play.
https://www.transfermarkt.com/diego-costa/ausfaelle/spieler/44779
The Russians are wily. The world wars would teach you this. If I am the Russian coach - I would get my players to do a little ‘Suarez’ play acting on these two and get them quiet.
3. Player familiarity: if there is one strength that Spain has ahead of all other teams - it is player familiarity. Almost the entire Spanish playing team play for three La Liga Clubs - FCB, Real Madrid and Athletico. Forget the Russians, no other WC Round 2 team could boast of this strength.
4. Momentum: here - Both teams on equal footing -
Slight advantage to Russia - although the Uruguay game exposed their flaws.
Net, net: i am not expecting a high scoring victory for Spain but most likely a 2-1 or a 2-0. However I have been wrong and hence if the La Rioja decide to go for it, William Hill offers a 10-1, 20-1 and 45-1 for a 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 respectively. My pals Dharmesh Karmokar and Omkar Joshi most likely to make money on the 4-0 !!
No beers in the fridge for me Sanjay Shende, I have an early start to work and hence most likely not to watch the Denmark Croatia game which surprisingly has the bookies clearly favouring a Croatian win.
What say folks ?
One of the greatest learning from football predictions is that, if done correctly, one can sharpen one’s decision making ability. Ideally like in non-sporting related decision making, all good managers look at many variables before making a final call. I have often found that my decision making ability (for serious stuff) continues to sharpen at work as I spend more time on trivial decision making. It is in this light I make some confessions below. Looking back at yesterday’s predictions, I made two rookie mistakes in making the 2-1 call on France defeating Argentina.
1. Mistake no:1: Despite concluding that both teams have the worlds best attacking sides, I assumed that both teams would have taken a defensive approach to a knockout game. I should have taken that punt on a Chelsea vs. Italy game (both historically defensive minded in big games) or on a game where at least one team is managed by Jose Mourinho 🤓 As we all know from hindsight, France scored on a counter early on and ended up with two attacking teams delivering a high scoring see saw thriller.
2. Mistake no:2: I assumed that (despite mentioning the potential of individual brilliance deciding the game) that the French midfield would control the game. Actually not - most of the goals were on swift counter attacks with no real midfield playmaking but sheer and simple out of the world strikes.
Note to self: in a football game, there are 100 million permutations and combinations that can decide the game. No wonder why bookies make money all the time against rookies like me.
Now on to tonight’s game. We look at four different aspects.
1. Team strength: Clearly in Spain’s favor except for point 2 below. Just like Brazil and France, Spain can easily field two world class sides from their 23 players. Great strikers, one of the best mid-field players in history (Andries Iniesta) and a truly amazing back-four that includes Sergio Ramos plus Gerard Pique. Not to forget brilliant playmakers like David Silva and Isco. I cannot think of one player from the current Russian team that would make it into the Spanish playing 11. Three other team strengths:
a. Passing and possession - less said the better.
b. Defenders that join in attack but still defend like mad dogs. Pique and Ramos would put any strike force to shame with their goal scoring abilities.
c. Ability to score from either wing or from the middle - a strength very few teams possess.
2. Red cards: Spain have at least three players that have a history of picking up red cards. Sergio Ramos has picked up 22 red cards in his career, yes !! And Diego Costa comes close. A superior history of missing games - and in my opinion only second to Luis Suarez of yester years - on foul play.
https://www.transfermarkt.com/diego-costa/ausfaelle/spieler/44779
The Russians are wily. The world wars would teach you this. If I am the Russian coach - I would get my players to do a little ‘Suarez’ play acting on these two and get them quiet.
3. Player familiarity: if there is one strength that Spain has ahead of all other teams - it is player familiarity. Almost the entire Spanish playing team play for three La Liga Clubs - FCB, Real Madrid and Athletico. Forget the Russians, no other WC Round 2 team could boast of this strength.
4. Momentum: here - Both teams on equal footing -
Slight advantage to Russia - although the Uruguay game exposed their flaws.
Net, net: i am not expecting a high scoring victory for Spain but most likely a 2-1 or a 2-0. However I have been wrong and hence if the La Rioja decide to go for it, William Hill offers a 10-1, 20-1 and 45-1 for a 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 respectively. My pals Dharmesh Karmokar and Omkar Joshi most likely to make money on the 4-0 !!
No beers in the fridge for me Sanjay Shende, I have an early start to work and hence most likely not to watch the Denmark Croatia game which surprisingly has the bookies clearly favouring a Croatian win.
What say folks ?
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