With 6 nights and 4 teams left in the fray, some general observations - mostly collated from viewpoints from around the world.
1. As usual - my favorite topic - the bookies - in my opinion the biggest winners in this tournament. They have won big time on England, Brazil, Argentina and (looks like on Spain too after the German semis). Currently Ladbrokes is offering 2,87 to 1 on both Spain and Germany to be eventual winners while my home town boys - the Dutch are available fractionally worse off at 3-1. As usual the dark horses Uruguay are available at 12-1. With the topsy turvy nature of the Cup so far, placing money on the surviving Latin Americans seems not too bad an idea. My pre-tournament favorite David Villa is available at 1,36 to 1 for top scorer with Klose and Sneidjer not too far behind. Again, putting money on Sneijder top scoring seems like a good idea. My dark horse bet would be Torres scoring a brace in the finals...watch this space.
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/2010-World-Cup-e210933160
2. So why have the bookies made money while the public have got it all wrong !! Or have we got it all wrong.
Some vital statistics:
2 out of top 4 ranked (FIFA rankings - pre tournament) teams are in the finals - Spain and Netherlands.
5 out of the top 8 played in the Quaterfinals.
Argentina and England were ranked 7th and 8th and were expected to play at best in the QFs (Argentina actually lived up to that billing).
Uruguay,Paraguay & Ghana were ranked 16th, 31st and 32nd and played ahead of expectations and ended up in the QFs and this performance will surely help them to gain spots in the FIFA rankings.
Simply put - as in any tournament draw - some teams have lived up to expectations (Spain, Netherlands, etc..) some have exceeded (Germany/Uruguay/Ghana/Paraguay) and some have done worse off...(Portugal - ranked 3rd and Brazil ranked 1st and of course the Italians who were ranked the 5th). FIFA pre-tournament rankings below.
http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html
Just for perspective - this WC does not differ too much from the 2010 Wimbledon Men's draw. The Finals was between the 2nd and 12th ranked players who defeated the 3rd and 4th ranked players in the semis. Federer like Brazil disappointed !!!
In summary - if you had followed the draw and made some intelligent punts (like Germany) - you would have beat the bookies.
3. Before tonight's SF - my prediction is that Germany look the likely winners but my heart goes out to the stylish Matadors. The Germans have one of the youngest teams in the tournament (average age 25 point something vs. 27 for all teams, 28 point something for the poor English !), have a fantastic coach (Joachim Low), 3 of the best attacking players in Klose, Schweinsteiger and Mueller and clearly the finest and most compact defence in the tournament (they have let in only 2 goals). But clearly they are playing to a strategy that one may have recognized....Look the goal scoring time (in minutes) of German victories..
vs. Australia - 8", 26", 68" and 70"
vs. England - 20". 32", 67" and 70"
vs. Argentina - 3". 68", 74" and 89"
Recognize this...i.e. score first in the first quarter of the match and then fall back to defend and earn lots of late goals on the counter !! Low has got this strategy bang on - esp: against teams with poor defences who get caught out against the younger and speedier Germans (ask Mr John Terry !!).
Net - great at scoring goals with a pre-determined strategy, great compact defense and outstanding tactics (recall how they annulled Messi by pushing him deep).
4. I have enjoyed watching the World Cup 2010 in different countries...and some outstanding moments stand out - watching almost 200 office folks watch the Netherlands game in Utrecht, landing at Zurich airport minutes after the Swiss had beaten the Spaniards, leaving for my holidays from Schiphol to see a giant mini stadium outside the airport, German tourists at Dubai airport agonising over the German defeat to Serbia, watching the Portugal DPR game at the newly opened Atlantis at Dubai Palm, enjoying all the second round games at the poolside bar at Maldives and finally the late night fun at Cochin and Bangalore (with a special treat from my friend Vinay at the fantastic Dream hotel in Cochin where we watched the fantastic Brazil Holland game)....
5. Finally - Spain...2 words of wisdom to the coach..wonder whether he would ever read this...
a. Don't drop Torres for the Semis..he is a wounded tiger and hungry for goals. The law of averages will catch up and he is bound to score...and more importantly - he will be a huge distraction for the German defence that will otherwise focus on Villa...
b. If you drop Torres, play Fabregas from the beginning...another wounded tiger ready to roar...
Some WC Semis - here we come...Germany Netherlands final most likely but Spain Uruguay would be an anti climax....(and one that would make lots of money for Ladbrokes..)
Now there are 4 - after tomorrow night - only 2 will remain !!!
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