Its Sunday morning and I am anxious to catch up the results of last night's Germany Uruguay game. I signed off after the Latinos had cancelled out Mueller's early strike..3-2 in the German's favor was in my opinion the best result for the third best team in the tournament...needless to say the Dutch and the Spanish have very clearly been the top 2 sides in this tournament and it is only befitting that these two sides should meet in tonight's final.
To keep up with my daily routine (as has been the case since June 11 when I left my former firm for a month long sabbatical), I signed into Ladbrokes. A 1-0 Spanish victory or a 1-1 in regular time seemed the most highest probable scenarios for tonights's game. Why was that...intuitively a 2-1 or a 3-2 in either team's favor were my possible predictions.
http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/football/2010-world-cup/holland-vs-spain-e214271106-m217885069
To get some perspective, I decided to call our German Soothsayer - Paul, the Germanic Mollusc.
Me: ' Hey Paul, I heard you have become very famous'.
Paul (in hushed tone): 'Hi Neil, Yes I have...but I am worried. Haven't you heard Mr. Zapatro's comments ?"
Me: 'Zapataro who ?'
Paul (send me a web link via satellite phone):' Read this'...
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Psychic-Octopus-gets-Spanish-protection/Article1-569753.aspx
Me 'Hmm...O.K so I am supporting Spain..and have some money on Spain to win the cup and Villa to get the Golden boot... Any thoughts and comments'.
Paul: 'I spoke to Del Bosque last night. although I have predicted a spanish win tonight, I warned senor Bosque on the following seven deadly sins that the Spaniards have to avoid in tonight's game..
Me: 'Tell me more Master'...
Paul: (after a few moments of silence). 'Here we go...
First - Ramos and Puyol need to be careful. The Dutch cry baby Arjen Robben is bound to get Ramos in his way and with 15 fouls committed so far in this tournament - Ramos is bound to see red if he is not careful. And if the game gets into extra time with Spain playing 10 players, this can be devastating for the Catalans.
Me: 'Hmmmm...Catalans...but the Spanish team has players from Real Madrid and Liverpool too...
Paul: 'That brings me to sin No: 2 that the Spanish should not commit. Let me remind you of some history - Given that 6 or 7 out of the starting 11 of the Spanish team 9and possibly Fabregas next year) coming from FCB, it is hard to distinguish the style of FCB from the Spanish national side. So they need to remember some history - Recall that historic Champions League first round match at the San Siro in April ? The Matadors and the Dutch coaches would have replayed the 2009-10 Inter vs. FCB Champions League semifinals (a thousand times) for possible clues of strengths and weaknesses of the Spanish possession game. Inter won that game 3-1 at the San Siro despite FCB having 68% possession (unbelievable eh ?) with the Dutchman Sneijder scoring a goal. 5 of the current Spanish players played in that match and they very well know that high possession rate alone cannot win them the game. A well organised Mourinho's star studded defense did not allowing the Catalonians any width or space that night and the Barcelona team fair and square. So they need some star performances from Torres or Villa tonight to lift the trophy. And most importantly they SHOULD NOT GIVE SNEIJDER ANY SPACE IN THE MIDFIELD AND SHUT HIM DOWN AS SOON AS HE GETS THE BALL.
http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/matches/season=2010/round=2000031/match=2000487/postmatch/statistics/index.html
Paul: 'Now to Sin No:3'...I hope Del Bosque does not make dramatic changes to his attacking formations.
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/teams/team=43960/index.html
The Dutch prefer to strike from the Centre (25 out of the 60 attacks) and Left (20 out of 60) while only a quarter of attacks originate from the right.
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/teams/team=43960/attacking.html
The Spaniards are much more equally balanced with 29 out of 97 coming from the left, 35 coming from the centre and 33 out of 97 coming from the right.
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/teams/team=43969/attacking.html
This means that Spain should continue to attack from the three fronts and ensure their Captain Van Bronckhorst is kept busy on the left (see heat map) attached.
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/players/player=155679/heatmap.html
This means either Torres or Pedro should be used and fed regularly to the maximum to keep Van Bronckhorst busy...
Me: 'thats interesting analysis Paul....so whats the 4th sin ?"
Paul: "Finally and most importantly - Spain should remember that the Dutch will also try to get possession early in the game. they have had an average 54% possession in the tournament compared to 58% for the Spanish. They will try to learn from the German game and push forward right from the word go. This will provide lots of room in midfield for the Spanish to attack. So for the first 15-20 minutes - they have to remain focused and stick to strategy...'..else they will be dead..
Me: 'Thank you Paul the Oracle.. So what happens next for you'
Paul:' I have asked Mr Zapatero to officially remove Octopus from the recipes of all Paellas in Spain..and he has promised me a call after the game...I hope the spanish don't commit the 4 deadly sins and let Mr Zapatero have me for Monday morninng Paellaa....'
Good Bye !!
1 comment:
HAHAHAHAHAHA....brilliant stuff Neil. Just too good!! Just that on the night of the final, the freaking Dutch played kickboxing instead of football.. And the ref went berserk !! Robben missed sitters... and so did Cesc. High drama!
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