Welcome back to Omnikarma.
First, a big thank you for all the comments, feedback and lively discussions. It is much appreciated. Watching, Writing and discussing football is one of my passions. However I am not a professional football writer and neither do I plan to become one. It is therefore utterly important that you let me know what you think - good and bad so I can get better for the next World Cup.
Second, thank you for your patience for having undergone 'football overdose' live from Brazil. The last 7 days in Brazil have certainly been my finest footballing hour - if ever there was a term like that.
Today, I will write my final version for World Cup 2014. And it is my take on why the Germans and the Argentinians are the last men standing in Rio.
Before I go there, I must take you back in time to 1998. Some of you that worked with me at P&G, India may remember that in June 1998 our Finance Director - Mr Derek Saul used to run the betting book for the corporate office team (all proceeds went to charity just in case you were wondering). He used to send out the daily odds by email and this was followed by a flurry of email exchanges on football, sport and life. Still recall BvP (Mr Bharat Patel) and Vijay
Santhanam, the Joshi brothers (Gireesh and Shireesh), Balaji Rumballs Ramanujam all contributing significantly to the football chatter. Some of you from that time may remember that I had written a piece about the need for 'familiarity' when a team plays WC football. Part of today's analysis will cover this topic in detail.
First let me lay out my conclusions about why Germany and Argentina have reached the finals. There are 6 key reasons in my opinion (and those from McKinsey - these 6 are not mutually exclusive, sorry I cannot hire expensive research analysts like you can).
1. Familiarity, 2. Squad depth, 3. Attacking prowess, 4. Luck, 5. Crucial tactical errors by coaches (and opposition taking advantage) in knockout stages and 6. Squad fitness. I must admit much of my analysis emanates from looking at the 4 semi finalists in detail (and much less so for first round losers).
1. Familiarity - the simple logic here is this. National players play much more for their clubs than they do for their country teams. Playing together is important especially when you are playing against specific strategic orders from the Coach. You will often notice this about central defenders and goal keepers. So all top teams like Chelsea, Man City, Bayern, Real Madrid have central defenders/goal keepers that have played together for ages. So if there is a mechanism to create familiarity between national team members - then the national squad plays better and is faster at adapting to the pressures of playing in a once in 4 years World Cup tournament. I have seen formal and informal mechanisms on how National Federations and Coaches create familiarity - a) pick squads from top 2-3 teams in the country (think FCB and Real Madrid for Spain in 2010, think Bayern Munich plus Dortmund for Germany b) play lots of friendlies or c) invest in the long term and create young squads that bond together. The current Belgian team is a great example of the latter option. Now listen to this - the current German team has 7 Bayern Munich players. What I even more fascinating is that 5 of the German players played together in the 2009 Under 21 European championship final and thrashed England 4-0 !!!
German under 21 squad from 2009
Talk about familiarity. The current Brazilian team comprise of people from 10 different clubs . Only the Dutch and Belgians come close. The Dutch have 6 from AFC and Feynoord while the entire Belgian squad have had familiarity as early as 2007 when 4 or 5 from the current senior team played upto the semi finals of the Under 20 European championship. I think England tried a stunt by picking up 6 players from Liverpool but they lacked attacking prowess.
2. Squad depth: I have taken the total experience of the top 11 players (in terms of minutes played in WC 2014). Germany 697 games > Argentina 556> Netherlands 510> Brazil 452. Funnily enough number of players with experience of > 100 Internationals (Germany 4>Netherlands 2>Argentina 1>Brazil 0). This played an important part in some critical games. Brazil did not have a back up for Thiago Silva or Neymar in that now infamous 7-1 game. Robin Van Persie had to be substituted by Huntelaar. I think only the French came close to the top 4 when it came to squad depth.
3. Attacking prowess: In my opinion, it would be short sighted to look at just the goals scored at this World Cup. I have taken the entire 2013-14 season and compared the top strikers across countries (in their respective leagues across Europe). E.g. Rooney goals scored in EPL, Messi - goals scored in the La Liga etc..
Argentina - Messi 28 + Aguero 17 + Higuain 17 + Palacio 17 - clearly the best attack in this tournament. For those that like stats (England - Sturbridge 21 + Rooney 17, Netherlands - RVP 12 + Robben 11, Brazil Neymar - 9 + Paulinho 15, France Giroud 17 + Benzema 17).
4. Luck: Needless to say, all teams that have moved into final four have had luck. Germans got lucky against France, US and enjoyed absence of Neymar/Thiago. Argentinians got lucky in the Semis (and that RVP had to be substituted resulting in Krul not getting a chance). Netherlands got lucky against Costa Rica and Mexico. Brazil got lucky against Colombia.
5. Crucial tactical errors: Let me mention two controversial ones. I don't know whether you noticed. The two guys who made all the difference for Germany vs. Brazil were two Bayern Munich players that let in all the goals for Brazil from the left. Dante and Luis Gustavo. Both these guys were terrible against their Bayern Munchen team mates who would have known all their weaknesses. As reported before, 4 out of the 6 goals came in from poor defending on the left from Brazil. Scolari should have realised this and made a switch early on in the game. And then the second - this time from Louis Van Gaal. Robin Van Persie was certainly not match fit and the Dutch were clearly playing a defensive game in the first half. So why did they need RVP up front - they could have waited for first half outcome and brought in RVP if needed. I was watching the game on the night in Sao Paolo and clearly RVP was no even at half his best. And to make things worse, LVG substituted Van Persie thus losing his chance to switch goal keepers for the penalty shoot out.
6. Related to some of the points above is my last one - Squad fitness. This relates to general fitness of total squad. Some stats:
Minutes played by top 11 players (NL 5621>Ger 5487>Arg 5425> Brazil 5109)
No: of players that played > 500 mins (Ger = Arg = 7, > NL 6, Brazil 4)
This is important especially related to point 1 given that during a World Cup, the key players need to play together and play much of the time and for this need you need a super fit squad).
Whew. That's it. I am not going to predict the winner. I think its a close call. Most factors indicate a German win. But luck and tactical moves matter. and of course the Argentinian attack.
Thank you once again for your support, don't forget to send your comments.
First, a big thank you for all the comments, feedback and lively discussions. It is much appreciated. Watching, Writing and discussing football is one of my passions. However I am not a professional football writer and neither do I plan to become one. It is therefore utterly important that you let me know what you think - good and bad so I can get better for the next World Cup.
Second, thank you for your patience for having undergone 'football overdose' live from Brazil. The last 7 days in Brazil have certainly been my finest footballing hour - if ever there was a term like that.
Today, I will write my final version for World Cup 2014. And it is my take on why the Germans and the Argentinians are the last men standing in Rio.
Before I go there, I must take you back in time to 1998. Some of you that worked with me at P&G, India may remember that in June 1998 our Finance Director - Mr Derek Saul used to run the betting book for the corporate office team (all proceeds went to charity just in case you were wondering). He used to send out the daily odds by email and this was followed by a flurry of email exchanges on football, sport and life. Still recall BvP (Mr Bharat Patel) and Vijay
Santhanam, the Joshi brothers (Gireesh and Shireesh), Balaji Rumballs Ramanujam all contributing significantly to the football chatter. Some of you from that time may remember that I had written a piece about the need for 'familiarity' when a team plays WC football. Part of today's analysis will cover this topic in detail.
First let me lay out my conclusions about why Germany and Argentina have reached the finals. There are 6 key reasons in my opinion (and those from McKinsey - these 6 are not mutually exclusive, sorry I cannot hire expensive research analysts like you can).
1. Familiarity, 2. Squad depth, 3. Attacking prowess, 4. Luck, 5. Crucial tactical errors by coaches (and opposition taking advantage) in knockout stages and 6. Squad fitness. I must admit much of my analysis emanates from looking at the 4 semi finalists in detail (and much less so for first round losers).
1. Familiarity - the simple logic here is this. National players play much more for their clubs than they do for their country teams. Playing together is important especially when you are playing against specific strategic orders from the Coach. You will often notice this about central defenders and goal keepers. So all top teams like Chelsea, Man City, Bayern, Real Madrid have central defenders/goal keepers that have played together for ages. So if there is a mechanism to create familiarity between national team members - then the national squad plays better and is faster at adapting to the pressures of playing in a once in 4 years World Cup tournament. I have seen formal and informal mechanisms on how National Federations and Coaches create familiarity - a) pick squads from top 2-3 teams in the country (think FCB and Real Madrid for Spain in 2010, think Bayern Munich plus Dortmund for Germany b) play lots of friendlies or c) invest in the long term and create young squads that bond together. The current Belgian team is a great example of the latter option. Now listen to this - the current German team has 7 Bayern Munich players. What I even more fascinating is that 5 of the German players played together in the 2009 Under 21 European championship final and thrashed England 4-0 !!!
German under 21 squad from 2009
Talk about familiarity. The current Brazilian team comprise of people from 10 different clubs . Only the Dutch and Belgians come close. The Dutch have 6 from AFC and Feynoord while the entire Belgian squad have had familiarity as early as 2007 when 4 or 5 from the current senior team played upto the semi finals of the Under 20 European championship. I think England tried a stunt by picking up 6 players from Liverpool but they lacked attacking prowess.
2. Squad depth: I have taken the total experience of the top 11 players (in terms of minutes played in WC 2014). Germany 697 games > Argentina 556> Netherlands 510> Brazil 452. Funnily enough number of players with experience of > 100 Internationals (Germany 4>Netherlands 2>Argentina 1>Brazil 0). This played an important part in some critical games. Brazil did not have a back up for Thiago Silva or Neymar in that now infamous 7-1 game. Robin Van Persie had to be substituted by Huntelaar. I think only the French came close to the top 4 when it came to squad depth.
3. Attacking prowess: In my opinion, it would be short sighted to look at just the goals scored at this World Cup. I have taken the entire 2013-14 season and compared the top strikers across countries (in their respective leagues across Europe). E.g. Rooney goals scored in EPL, Messi - goals scored in the La Liga etc..
Argentina - Messi 28 + Aguero 17 + Higuain 17 + Palacio 17 - clearly the best attack in this tournament. For those that like stats (England - Sturbridge 21 + Rooney 17, Netherlands - RVP 12 + Robben 11, Brazil Neymar - 9 + Paulinho 15, France Giroud 17 + Benzema 17).
4. Luck: Needless to say, all teams that have moved into final four have had luck. Germans got lucky against France, US and enjoyed absence of Neymar/Thiago. Argentinians got lucky in the Semis (and that RVP had to be substituted resulting in Krul not getting a chance). Netherlands got lucky against Costa Rica and Mexico. Brazil got lucky against Colombia.
5. Crucial tactical errors: Let me mention two controversial ones. I don't know whether you noticed. The two guys who made all the difference for Germany vs. Brazil were two Bayern Munich players that let in all the goals for Brazil from the left. Dante and Luis Gustavo. Both these guys were terrible against their Bayern Munchen team mates who would have known all their weaknesses. As reported before, 4 out of the 6 goals came in from poor defending on the left from Brazil. Scolari should have realised this and made a switch early on in the game. And then the second - this time from Louis Van Gaal. Robin Van Persie was certainly not match fit and the Dutch were clearly playing a defensive game in the first half. So why did they need RVP up front - they could have waited for first half outcome and brought in RVP if needed. I was watching the game on the night in Sao Paolo and clearly RVP was no even at half his best. And to make things worse, LVG substituted Van Persie thus losing his chance to switch goal keepers for the penalty shoot out.
6. Related to some of the points above is my last one - Squad fitness. This relates to general fitness of total squad. Some stats:
Minutes played by top 11 players (NL 5621>Ger 5487>Arg 5425> Brazil 5109)
No: of players that played > 500 mins (Ger = Arg = 7, > NL 6, Brazil 4)
This is important especially related to point 1 given that during a World Cup, the key players need to play together and play much of the time and for this need you need a super fit squad).
Whew. That's it. I am not going to predict the winner. I think its a close call. Most factors indicate a German win. But luck and tactical moves matter. and of course the Argentinian attack.
Thank you once again for your support, don't forget to send your comments.
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