What a fantastic Round 1 so far. But it is about to get more interesting from tonight. And my post is going to be laden with some thoughts mixed with Game theory !
A bit of rewind: The first two rounds of this edition of the WC have produced far exciting football than in the Group stages of the previous editions in recent WC history - this despite 1) not having the Azzurri and the Oranje (the Italians and the Dutch for those uninitiated about the connection between shirt Colors and football teams) and 2) partially as a result of point 1, not having a Group of Death in the 2018 edition (Group of Death usually refers to a group of equally strong teams in a tournament that makes it difficult for any team to proceed - and conversely leads to sudden death early on in the tournament). And that has partially to do with performance relative to expectations. Why ? Pre- tournament favourites (both according to FIFA rankings and with the bookies) Germany, Brazil & Argentina (#1,2 and 5 on the FIFA rankings) have not fired yet ! Poland & Peru (ranked 8 and 11) are out of the tournament already. Underrated hosts Russia (#70) & rank outsiders Croatia and Sweden (#20 and 24 respectively) have played well above expectations. 8 teams - Spain, France, Portugal, England, Uruguay, Belgium, Denmark and Switzerland have all played to their Top 15 rankings so far and hence on track to qualify for the knockout stage (mathematically speaking the round where Top 16 teams are supposed to play - if they live upto their billings !). I was also extremely impressed with the quality of football played by Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia - which bodes well for a very good Round 1. Those interested in finding out more about the FIFA rankings, please do go through the website, link below.
So, what can we expect from tonight ? Even more exciting football. And some Game Theory. Why ? I say - Why Not?
The Russia - Uruguay game is one that will underscore the point I am ranting about. The winner of the Russia-Uruguay game will meet the Runner-up of Group B (Spain or Portugal). The Russians are in a funny situation. If they win or draw, they go through as Group Winners. If the Spaniards and the Portuguese are smart, they will want to meet the Russians in Round 2 and not the mightier Uruguayans. Now wily Ronaldo’s Portuguese are thinking the same - they rather meet the Russians. On the other hand - the Uruguayans are possibly thinking - hey, we would like to meet the Portuguese rather than the better Spaniards. And FIFA plays big Daddy here - there is no way that the teams (esp Uruguay and Russia) can predict their next round opponents as their games kicks off a few hours earlier than the final games of Group B. On the other hand - both the Spaniards and Portuguese would have known the winners of Group A before their matches kick-off and hence can pace their respective matches to ensure either of them play the Russians. So likely outcomes:
If Russia top Group A (I.e - an outcome due to Russia winning against Uruguay or a draw): both Spain and Portugal to play out draws later tonight. And both trying to outdo each other with a late yellow card (remember tied teams on points and goal difference will get negative points on number of yellow or red cards, read my earlier post on this topic).
If Uruguay Top Group A (only happens if they beat Russia tonight): both Portugal and Spain to go out and try and win their final games tonight.
Putting game theory into action - Uruguay (and for that matter Russia) know that between Spain and Portugal - Spain have a better chance of beating Morocco than Portugal beating Iran (simply because Iran better than Morocco so far in this tournament and also because Iran will go all out to win given that a win takes them into Round 2). Hence better for Suarez/Cavani and company to go and win the Russia game tonight and most likely face Portugal or Iran in Round 2. Ditto for the Russians !
Net net - as you would imagine - it is going to be extremely difficult to predict the scores for tonight. My game theory based predictions: Uruguay to win vs. Russia in a hard fought 2-1/3-1/3-2 (William Hill offering a mouthwatering 22-1 on the 3-1) and Spain to beat Morocco 2-0/3-0 and Portugal to beat Iran (1-0 or 2-1). I am sticking my neck out here - what about you folks ?
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