WC 2018 Curtain Raiser: Let the games begin

Legal disclaimer: the author shall not be liable for any mental, financial or reputational loss arising out of actions taken after reading this post, especially on online betting sites.


Welcome back to Omnikarma where the banter is usually about footie, politics, leadership and marketing. It has been a while but hey, the World Cup brings the best out of this blog and its readers. So here goes..

Prelude: Like for most of my close friends, my first World Cup viewing experience dates back to 1982 when Italy won the final against W Germany (yes, we had to differentiate between W and E Germany those days ?!) on the back of the powerful performance of Paolo Rossi. Since then, I have probably watched almost all of the crucial games in the eight World Cups played after 82  (on TV mostly). And crucially, I have never held back from predicting the winner of the tournament via a number of public posts. Some of you may remember my emails on the subject in 1998 (Vijay Santhanam even had the courage to use my predictions to bet on Derek Saul’s famous P&G betting syndicate) to my FB and blog posts from the 2014 Brazil World Cup. And I promise - the 2018 edition will not be any different. I shall continue on my tradition by writing my (now) infamous WC curtain raiser today. Infamous because I have got almost all my predictions wrong mostly by betting on Brazil and England to deliver miracles in the past eight editions when clearly all the data showed Germany, France, Spain and/or Italy to deliver significantly better. And this year will be no different.

So, I will cover three main debates in this WC Curtain Raiser post - 1) who will win the WC in 2018, 2) in case you had to choose, which matches should you watch before the Quarter Final stage and 3) what teams should you support because your favourite Italian, Dutch or American teams are not playing in this edition of the world’s favourite sporting event.

So the Billion Dollar question. Who will win the World Cup ? My take (in true Consultant style) - it depends. Three possible winners and two dark horses. Let’s dive right in. As always, the best insights come from the bookies. Odds offered by Bookies reflect the collective wisdom of football pundits and popular vote. Bookies (at least the ones that make profits) tend to get their results right; so listen to them. Brazil at 4-1 is the favourite slightly ahead of Germany, Spain and France. The top 4 are followed by Argentina, Belgium, England, Uruguay and Portugal.

The case for Brazil is clear. New coach Tite has been in place since 2016, the poor performing central midfield has been completely cleared out after the 7-1 hammering by the Germans (and now looking strong with Casemiro and Coutinho), Neymar slowly coming back to form (and teaming up with Gabriel Jesus and Firmino) and a team that is looking to erase the ‘ghosts’ of 2014. So Brazil start as my firm favourite to win the trophy this year. 

The Germans come with the confidence being the title defenders but have been erratic since. Despite the loss to the French in the 2016 Euro semis, Joachim Loewe’s team come with the huge advantage of player familiarity. 6 of the current players play for the Bayern Munich side and most players have been together either for the national or club sides for the last decade. Manuel Neuer has just come back from an injury which may be a crucial weakness especially in the tie-breaker games in the knockout stages. They also have a potentially difficult knockout draw and most likely to face their first difficult game in the Quarters against Belgium or England (more about that later) and the Spaniards or Argentinians in the semis. My prediction: the Germans will not proceed beyond the Semis. 

I have two second favourites - Spain and France. Both teams are packed with superstars - young as well as experienced, and moreover recent form in friendlies has been very good. The French come with a powerful overall line-up (Pogba, Griezman, Mbappe, Loris, Lemar, N’golo Kante) while the Spaniards come with the amazing stat that 13 of their players come from just 3 clubs - Athletico, Real and Barcelona - that have all enjoyed local and international success in recent times. Spain’s fortunes at the WC, though will potentially hinge on one critical game (see below). 

And the two dark horses - England and Uruguay. For a change, the English come with a very good squad devoid of diva superstars (and their WAGs), a very good tactical manager in Southgate, an excellent strike force led by Harry Kane & Sterling and for the first time in recent history, they come with the advantage of the English media behind them.  Currently William Hill are offering a mouthwatering 16-1 for the English. I am tempted, but I shall hold my pounds for now. 

Uruguay - much rides on the form of their legendary striking pair of Edison Cavani and Luiz Suarez. Both are in decent form. Add in an experienced manager (Tabarez) and a couple of excellent defenders from Athletico (Godin and Gimenez) plus not to forget the fact that the average height of the team is about 180 cms (especially important when they play games against France and Portugal, their likely opponents in the early knockout stages - with aerially gifted players like CR7 and Pogba to thwart). 

Which brings me to the second debate. What are the critical games. 

To me, there are three critical meetings in the  Group stages. Portugal 🇵🇹 vs. Spain 🇪🇸 on June 15. Uruguay 🇺🇾 vs. Russia 🇷🇺 on June 25. And the thriller of them all England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 vs. Belgium 🇧🇪 on June 28. Winners of each of these games are likely to top their respective groups and get a more favorable Round 2 opponent. 

Needless to say, the tournament gets alive in the Quarter final stage and my prediction for the QF line-up is:

France vs. Uruguay - July 6

Brazil vs. Belgium - July 6.

Spain vs. Argentina - July 7

Germany vs. England - July 7. 

The only change to the above may be the interchange of England and Belgium depending on the winner of the game between these two sides on June 28. 

And the final piece - if you are missing the Italians, Dutch and the Americans - what should you do. Many options - a) watch Wimbledon instead. b) House of Cards Season 2 on Netflix. c) holiday to the Vatican or d) enjoy the Rotterdam Jazz festival. Plenty of Americans, Italians and the Dutch on show. 

So, let the games begin.

Happy to get comments and critiques !!